On the 60th anniversary of the day that we became a republic, each one of us probably looked back at the past; praised what went right and wondered how so much went wrong. But this process of reflection wouldn't be complete if we didn't spend some time contemplating what direction our country should take from this day forward.
One change that I am hoping for is India letting go off its reluctance to actively engage in geo politics and start playing an active role in determining what the new equilibrium in the sub continent will look like. Although its been a long time since we buried the principles of the Non Aligned Movement, the detachment that was the fundamental governing principle of the movement still seems to hold us back. And as a growing economic power surrounded by extremely hostile neighbors, its a strategy that is bound to fail.
If we are going to get into specifics, I would like to see India take an active role in the Afghanistan conflict. Making sure that the Afghan does not make a comeback is of vital strategic importance to us. If Pakistan becomes secure on their western front, their targets will quickly turn back to India. For more on that read this.
Wishing you all a very happy republic day.
Yglesias attempts to do the math on the probability of finding a terrorist:
Moreover whatever happened to logical reasoning? Since when did we start treating 1.5 million people as suspects? Surely there must be some criteria which shows what socio - economic groups will show a greater tendency to become terrorists.
The other point is that monitoring the UK’s 1.5 million Muslims is a lost cause. If you have a 99.9 percent accurate method of telling whether or not a given British Muslim is a dangerous terrorist, then apply it to all 1.5 million British Muslims, you’re going to find 1,500 dangerous terrorists in the UK. But nobody thinks there are anything like 1,500 dangerous terrorists in the UK. I’d be very surprised if there were as many as 15. And if there are 15, that means you’re 99.9 percent accurate method is going to get you a suspect pool that’s overwhelmingly composed of innocent people. The weakness of al-Qaeda’s movement, and the very tiny pool of operatives it can draw from, makes it essentially impossible to come up with viable methods for identifying those operatives.Yglesias proves that he knows nothing about quantitative reasoning. You do not use a single screening test to find terrorists. As a number of filters are applied, the number of false positives goes down substantially. So there is no need for it to have 99.99% accuracy. Do we have such filters? I do not know. But to say that we need a "99.9 percent accurate method" is ignorant.
Moreover whatever happened to logical reasoning? Since when did we start treating 1.5 million people as suspects? Surely there must be some criteria which shows what socio - economic groups will show a greater tendency to become terrorists.
